作者简介：律师维基阿罗约（Vicki Arroyo）是乔治敦气候中心的执行董事，从事于以气候缓解和适应的政策作为可行的解决方案，解决不可避免中断的气候变化的当前实践。阿罗约与美国政策制定者合作一起运用现有最好的科学，同时在州和联邦一级开发“行星管理”策略。

This is the skyline of my hometown, New Orleans. It was a great place to grow up, but it's one of the most vulnerable spots in the world. Half the city is already below sea level. In 2005, the world watched as New Orleans and the Gulf Coast were devastated by Hurricane Katrina. One thousand, eight hundred and thirty-six people died. Nearly 300,000 homes were lost. These are my mother's, at the top -- although that's not her car, it was carried there by floodwaters up to the roof -- and that's my sister's, below. Fortunately, they and other family members got out in time, but they lost their homes, and as you can see, just about everything in them.

这是我家乡新奥尔兰的天际线，这是一个适合长大的地方。但这也是这世上最脆弱的地方之一，一半的城市都已经低于海平面了。在2005年，全世界目睹了新奥尔兰和墨西哥湾岸区被凯瑟琳台风所摧毁，一千八百三十四人不幸丧命，近三十万人流离失所。在那上面，是我妈妈的屋子－ 尽管那不是她的车 那是被洪水带到上面的。而下面的，则是我姐姐的 万幸的是，她们和其他家庭成员都及时逃生了，但是正如您所见，她们失去了自己的家园 和里面几乎一切。

Other parts of the world have been hit by storms in even more devastating ways. In 2008, Cyclone Nargis and its aftermath killed 138,000 in Myanmar. Climate change is affecting our homes, our communities, our way of life. We should be preparing at every scale and at every opportunity.

这个世界其余地方也遭遇暴风雨，甚至是以一种更毁灭性的方式。在2008年，飓风纳尔吉斯及其余波使138,000缅甸人遇害。气候变化正在影响着我们的家园，及社区和我们的生活方式。我们需要准备好 面对任何规模，任何机会。

This talk is about being prepared for, and resilient to the changes that are coming and that will affect our homes and our collective home, the Earth.

这个话题使关于准备好，能时刻适应即将来临的变化和其将为我们的家和我们共同的家园：地球所带来的影响。

The changes in these times won't affect us all equally. There are important distributional consequences, and they're not what you always might think. In New Orleans, the elderly and female-headed households were among the most vulnerable. For those in vulnerable, low-lying nations, how do you put a dollar value on losing your country where you ancestors are buried? And where will your people go? And how will they cope in a foreign land? Will there be tensions over immigration, or conflicts over competition for limited resources? It's already fueled conflicts in Chad and Darfur. Like it or not, ready or not, this is our future.

我们将面临的改变不会对每个人造成一样的影响。这里有很多重大的次生结果，并且可能与你一直所想的大相径庭。在新奥尔兰，老年人和需要支撑起整个家庭的主妇们是最脆弱的。 对于那些脆弱，无依无靠的人，你怎能等同一美元和失去你的国家 那你祖先所居住的地方？而且你又能去哪儿呢？再之他们又怎么适应新的地方？他们是否会因为移民而焦虑，又或为了争夺匮乏的资源而争吵？这已曾在乍得共和国和苏尔富尔（位于苏丹，译者注）引起过冲突。喜欢或不喜欢，准备好了或是没有，这就是我们的未来。

Sure, some are looking for opportunities in this new world. That's the Russians planting a flag on the ocean bottom to stake a claim for minerals under the receding Arctic sea ice. But while there might be some short-term individual winners, our collective losses will far outweigh them. Look no further than the insurance industry as they struggle to cope with mounting catastrophic losses from extreme weather events.

是的，有人在寻找新世界的机遇。那是俄罗斯在海底插上他们的国旗，去申明矿物所有权，在北极渐渐退去的冰底中。但是当这可能会有一些短期获利的同时，我们累计起的损失会远远超过这些。不要舍近求远，就像保险行业挣扎着去赔偿灾难的损失，来源于恶劣的天气环境。

The military gets it. They call climate change a threat multiplier that could harm stability and security, while governments around the world are evaluating how to respond.

军队懂得了，他们把气候改变称为一个威胁倍增器，它们可以威胁稳定和安全，正当全世界的政府正在评估 如何去回应的时候。

So what can we do? How can we prepare and adapt? I'd like to share three sets of examples, starting with adapting to violent storms and floods. In New Orleans, the I-10 Twin Spans, with sections knocked out in Katrina, have been rebuilt 21 feet higher to allow for greater storm surge. And these raised and energy-efficient homes were developed by Brad Pitt and Make It Right for the hard-hit Ninth Ward. The devastated church my mom attends has been not only rebuilt higher, it's poised to become the first Energy Star church in the country. They're selling electricity back to the grid thanks to solar panels, reflective paint and more. Their March electricity bill was only 48 dollars.

所以，我们能做什么？我们如何准备并去适应？ 我想分享三个例子，开始于适应猛烈的暴风雨和洪水。在新奥尔南，1-10双拱桥 因其中一个被击垮，已经重建高21码去适应更猛烈的浪潮。和这些建得更高且高能效的房屋是“布拉特皮特”和“使它变得更好”(Make it Right)组织建立为了有九级防御功能，这个被摧毁了的教堂是我母亲过去常去的一个，不仅仅被建得更高了，而且还被建成了这个国家的第一个一星能源教堂。它们运输电源到输电网 基于太阳能面板和反光漆油以及其余东西。他们二月份的电费仅仅是48美金。

Now these are examples of New Orleans rebuilding in this way, but better if others act proactively with these changes in mind. For example, in Galveston, here's a resilient home that survived Hurricane Ike, when others on neighboring lots clearly did not. And around the world, satellites and warning systems are saving lives in flood-prone areas such as Bangladesh.

现在这些是新奥尔南重建过程中的案例们。但是如果别人能够提前设想这些措施就更好了。 举个例子，在加尔维斯顿有一个弹性结构房，从飓风中得以幸存，当它周围的建筑都很明显被摧毁殆尽。与此同时在世界各地，卫星和报警系统正在从像孟加拉国这样的低洼地区拯救生命。

But as important as technology and infrastructure are, perhaps the human element is even more critical. We need better planning and systems for evacuation. We need to better understand how people make decisions in times of crisis, and why. While it's true that many who died in Katrina did not have access to transportation, others who did refused to leave as the storm approached, often because available transportation and shelters refused to allow them to take their pets. Imagine leaving behind your own pet in an evacuation or a rescue. Fortunately in 2006, Congress passed the Pet Evacuation and Transportation Standards Act (Laughter) — it spells "PETS" — to change that.

但是就像技术和基础设施一样重要，人为因素可能更为重要。我们需要更好的疏散计划和系统。我们需要透彻地理解人们如何做决定，当他们面临危机时刻，而且为什么。虽然真相是很多凯瑟琳台风遇害者都未能使用交通工具，而有机会使用交通工具的却在暴风雨来临时拒绝离开，常常是因为可使用的交通工具和避难所都拒绝允许他们带上自己的宠物。想象一下无法撤离和营救你自己的宠物。但幸运的是在2006年，国会通过了宠物撤离及运输标准法案(PETS) －添上了“宠物” －从而改变了之前的情形。

Second, preparing for heat and drought. Farmers are facing challenges of drought from Asia to Africa, from Australia to Oklahoma, while heat waves linked with climate change have killed tens of thousands of people in Western Europe in 2003, and again in Russia in 2010.

第二点，为和高温和干旱做好准备，农民们正面临着旱灾的挑战，从亚洲到非洲，从澳洲到俄克拉荷马州，与此同时高温热浪和气候变化紧紧相连，已经杀死了成千上万的人在2003年在西欧，和2010年的俄罗斯。

In Ethiopia, 70 percent, that's 7-0 percent of the population, depends on rainfall for its livelihood. Oxfam and Swiss Re, together with Rockefeller Foundation, are helping farmers like this one build hillside terraces and find other ways to conserve water, but they're also providing for insurance when the droughts do come. The stability this provides is giving the farmers the confidence to invest. It's giving them access to affordable credit. It's allowing them to become more productive so that they can afford their own insurance over time, without assistance. It's a virtuous cycle, and one that could be replicated throughout the developing world.

在埃塞俄比亚百分之七十，是百分之七－十的人口依靠降雨来维持他们的生活。牛津饥荒救济委员会和瑞士再保险公司与洛克菲勒基金会携手，共同帮助像他一样农民们建造山坡梯田 和找寻其余的方法保存用水。但当旱灾来临的时候他们也提供保险赔偿。这让那些农民坚定了投资的信心。向他们提供可负担的贷款。这使他们变得更加多产，随着时间过去有能力自给自足，从而不需要赞助。这是一个良性循环，而且是可以在发展中国家广泛使用的。

After a lethal 1995 heat wave turned refrigerator trucks from the popular Taste of Chicago festival into makeshift morgues, Chicago became a recognized leader, tamping down on the urban heat island impact through opening cooling centers, outreach to vulnerable neighborhoods, planting trees, creating cool white or vegetated green roofs. This is City Hall's green roof, next to Cook County's [portion of the] roof, which is 77 degrees Fahrenheit hotter at the surface. Washington, D.C., last year, actually led the nation in new green roofs installed, and they're funding this in part thanks to a five-cent tax on plastic bags. They're splitting the cost of installing these green roofs with home and building owners. The roofs not only temper urban heat island impact but they save energy, and therefore money, the emissions that cause climate change, and they also reduce stormwater runoff. So some solutions to heat can provide for win-win-wins.

在致命的1995热浪中，让冷藏车从芝加哥节日流行口味变成了停尸房。芝加哥变成了广为人知的领导者，迈出了城市热岛效应 借助于开放避暑中心到脆弱的郊区，种植树木，建立凉爽的或者植物覆盖的屋顶。这座市政厅的绿色屋顶，较为内部温度，表面温度高77华氏度。华盛顿在去年实际上带领了这个国家建立绿色屋顶，而他们也通过5分钱的塑料袋税收来为这项工程提供资金。他们同时与家庭和建筑所有者共同分担建设绿色屋顶的费用。这种屋顶不仅能调节城市热岛效应 同时还能节约能源，金钱以及减少温室气体 同时也能起到排水效果。因此有些解决酷暑的手段能够带来双赢。

Third, adapting to rising seas. Sea level rise threatens coastal ecosystems, agriculture, even major cities. This is what one to two meters of sea level rise looks like in the Mekong Delta. That's where half of Vietnam's rice is grown.

第三点，适应海平面上升。海平面上升威胁沿海地区生态，农业系统甚至主要城市。这是一 两米左右 海平面上升在湄公河看起来的样子。那里是越南一半粮食的产地。

Infrastructure is going to be affected. Airports around the world are located on the coast. It makes sense, right? There's open space, the planes can take off and land without worrying about creating noise or avoiding tall buildings. Here's just one example, San Francisco Airport, with 16 inches or more of flooding. Imagine the staggering cost of protecting this vital infrastructure with levees. But there might be some changes in store that you might not imagine. For example, planes require more runway for takeoff because the heated, less dense air, provides for less lift. San Francisco is also spending 40 million dollars to rethink and redesign its water and sewage treatment, as water outfall pipes like this one can be flooded with seawater, causing backups at the plant, harming the bacteria that are needed to treat the waste. So these outfall pipes have been retrofitted to shut seawater off from entering the system.

基础设施将会被影响。通往全世界的机场就建立在这里。这很合理，对吧？因为这里是一片空地，飞机可以起飞降落而不用担心产生噪音或去躲避高楼大厦。这里只是一个例子，旧金山机场，受16英尺左右的洪水泛滥袭击。想像一下用于保护 重要基础设施的堤坝的费用。 但是与此同时可能有 你不能预测的变化。比如，飞机需要更多的跑道去起飞，因为高温，不稠密的空气，不能提供足够的升力。旧金山还花费四千万美元去反思和重建下水道处理系统。因为像这样的排水渠口也可能被海水淹没，从而危害植物，滋生细菌。需要建立设施来处理这些浪费。因此需要更新这些排水管道防止海水进入排水系统。

Beyond these technical solutions, our work at the Georgetown Climate Center with communities encourages them to look at what existing legal and policy tools are available and to consider how they can accommodate change. For example, in land use, which areas do you want to protect, through adding a seawall, for example, alter, by raising buildings, or retreat from, to allow the migration of important natural systems, such as wetlands or beaches?

除了这些技术层面的措施意外，我们位于乔治城气候中心和社区共同工作鼓励他们参考现存的法律和政策并且考虑如何才能适应变化。譬如，用地，哪片地区你想要通过用建设防波堤的方式去保护，再比方通过升高建筑，或向后搬迁去允许重要的自然系统迁徙比方说湿地或者沙滩？

Other examples to consider. In the U.K., the Thames Barrier protects London from storm surge. The Asian Cities Climate [Change] Resilience Network is restoring vital ecosystems like forest mangroves. These are not only important ecosystems in their own right, but they also serve as a buffer to protect inland communities.

这里同时有其余的例子，在英国，泰晤士河保护伦敦免遭于风暴潮袭击。亚洲城市气候变迁韧性组织 正在修复类似于红树林的重要的生态系统。 这些生态系统不仅仅是本身是重要的 而且同时充当了缓冲区的作用来保护内陆地区。

New York City is incredibly vulnerable to storms, as you can see from this clever sign, and to sea level rise, and to storm surge, as you can see from the subway flooding. But back above ground, these raised ventilation grates for the subway system show that solutions can be both functional and attractive. In fact, in New York, San Francisco and London, designers have envisioned ways to better integrate the natural and built environments with climate change in mind.

纽约在暴风雨面前显得十分脆弱，就想你在这块指示牌上看到的一样，纽约同时也经不住海平面上升和暴风雨，正如你从这幅纽约地铁涨水图中看见的一样。但是当我们返回到地面，这些上升的地铁通风格栏系统提醒我们措施可以同时 是有功能效应且引人注意的。事实上，纽约、旧金山和伦敦，设计师们已经设想出了能更加契合自然并且兼顾应对自然变化的建设方法。

I think these are inspiring examples of what's possible when we feel empowered to plan for a world that will be different. But now, a word of caution. Adaptation's too important to be left to the experts. Why? Well, there are no experts. We're entering uncharted territory, and yet our expertise and our systems are based on the past. "Stationarity" is the notion that we can anticipate the future based on the past, and plan accordingly, and this principle governs much of our engineering, our design of critical infrastructure, city water systems, building codes, even water rights and other legal precedents. But we can simply no longer rely on established norms. We're operating outside the bounds of CO2 concentrations that the planet has seen for hundreds of thousands of years.

我认为这些设想都是十分打动人心的例子，让我们认为自己有能力去改变这个世界。但是现在，请谨记着对这些专家而言适应也是十分重要的。为什么？因为就没有所谓的专家。我们正在进入一个全新的领域，而目前为止我们的专长和系统都仅仅是建立于过去的。“平稳”是我们将使用于未来的准则，基于经验，同时随机应变，与此同时，这也是一个领导我们当今工程 当今设计核心基础设施，城市排水系统，建筑规范，甚至用水权以及其余判例的词。但是我们在也不能仅仅依靠建立规范了。我们已经超如了地球上已经恪守了成千上万年的二氧化碳浓度限制。

The larger point I'm trying to make is this. It's up to us to look at our homes and our communities, our vulnerabilities and our exposures to risk, and to find ways to not just survive, but to thrive, and it's up to us to plan and to prepare and to call on our government leaders and require them to do the same, even while they address the underlying causes of climate change.

我在这里想说的是，这是我们的责任去照顾我们的家园和社会，我们的脆弱且易暴露于危险之中的家园。不仅仅是去找寻一个生存的办法，而是一个繁荣兴旺的办法。而且这是我们的责任去规划和准备和提醒我们的政府领导并且要求他们去做同样的事，即便与此同时他们正在强调潜伏的气候变化原因。

There are no quick fixes. There are no one-size-fits-all solutions. We're all learning by doing. But the operative word is doing.

这没有权宜之计。这里没有完全之策。我们只有从实践中学习。关键词是去做，去实践。

原文出自：Ted Talk

原文链接：http://www.ted.com/talks/vicki_arroyo_let_s_prepare_for_our_new_climate?language=zh-tw

文中生词：

Devastated: v. 彻底破坏( devastate的过去式和过去分词)； 摧毁； 毁灭； 在感情上（精神上、财务上等）压垮

adj. 毁坏的； 极为震惊的

extremely upset and shocked （极度）不安的，混乱的，震惊的

Resilient:adj. 能复原的； 弹回的，有弹性的； 能立刻恢复精神的； 社会渣滓

1) recovering readily from adversity, depression, or the like

2) elastic; rebounds readily;

Multiplier:(mathematics 数) a number by which another number is multiplied 乘数；倍数

Infrastructure: n. 基础设施； 基础建设

[C, U] the basic systems and services that are necessary for a country or an organization to run smoothly, for example buildings, transport and water and power supplies （国家或机构的）基础设施，基础建设

Evacuation: n. 撤空； 撤离； 撤退； 疏散

1) [VN] to move people from a place of danger to a safer place （把人从危险的地方）疏散，转移，撤离

2) to move out of a place because of danger, and leave the place empty （从危险的地方）撤出，搬出，撤空

3) [VN] (formal) to empty your bowels 排空（胃肠）；排泄（粪便）

Morgue: n. 太平间，停尸房( morgue的名词复数 )

1) (BrE) a building in which dead bodies are kept before they are buried or cremated (= burned) 停尸房；太平间

2) 2. a place where dead bodies that have been found are kept until they can be identified （供辨认尸首的）陈尸所

Ventilation: n.通风；通风设备；充气；公开讨论

1) the act of supplying fresh air and getting rid of foul air

2) a mechanical system in a building that provides fresh air;

3) free and open discussion of (or debate on) some question of public interest;

【智梦简介】

智梦是一家专注美国本科留学的教育咨询机构。

我们的使命：

“智梦教育团队深知留学申请关系到学生及其家长的前途和未来，我们将竭尽所能帮助每一位智梦学员发掘其潜在的特质，以开放透明的申请方式，让他们能不留遗憾的争取到自己的理想学校。与此同时，培养他们成为诚实守信、独立思考、德才兼备的国际化人才。”

我们的愿景：

“智梦教育将成为一所发掘学术兴趣，培养学术能力，塑造具有公民意识的新时代留学生的学校。”